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Maingate Group 25* expected Wednesday!  Kudos to Major1Sports 5* Indiana. Maingate 15* Toronto a push

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4 1/2* BEST BET Wednesday night NBA

Gunning for 3-0 Best Bets/2-0 Tuesday w/ 4* Wash 'OVER' and 3* Wash

Sweet! 4 1/2* Clippers & Warriors easy 'OVER' Monday

2-0 NBA Playoff Best Bets. Now 22-14 w/ 5* & 4 1/2*'s since start of Hoops in January

Animal opening 5* hits w/ Portland and Houston 'OVER' Sunday

Analysis of 4 1/2* LA Clippers 'OVER' Monday:

I mentioned in game #1 the Clippers will only advance if Doc Rivers can get his team to commit defensively. Give them a grade F in the opener.  How do you allow 109 points when the Warriors only score 22 in the fourth quarter and Curry and Thompson are a combined 13-of-36 from the field?  I think this team will win tonight but not sure about covering that hefty price.  Instead I will look to the ‘OVER’.  Blake Griffin was in constant foul trouble and only scored 16 points in 19 minutes.  I still do not believe there’s anybody in the Warrior lineup that can guard him.  Matt Barnes had just two points on Saturday.  I’ve seen guys like Jamal Crawford, Darren Collison, and Danny Granger light it up off the bench. That was Grangers’s first game back after three weeks off due to injury so he was certainly rusty. But that trio on Saturday was a combined 5-of-26.  It’s one thing not to get much scoring contribution off your bench. But 5-for-26 enables the opponent to get better opportunities at the other end off missed shots.  The Clippers shot a woeful 42.5 percent and missed 12 free throws and still scored 105 points The Clips have gone ‘OVER’ in nine of their last 11.  I’ll be shocked tonight if they are held under 110 points.  The Warriors allowed 112, 120, and 119 points in their three previous games before Saturday.  Also I thought it was interesting that in game #2 of the first round last year the Warriors and Denver played a 131-117 shootout following a 97-95 verdict in game #1.  The Clippers are 7-1 ‘OVER’ when facing an opponent that allowed 100 or more points in their previous game.  Plus they are 20-6 ‘OVER’ when facing an opponent at home with a winning record. Golden State is 8-2 ‘OVER’ their last ten versus an opponent above .500.  I’m certain the Clippers’ bench will shoot better than their 8-of-30 effort on Saturday and Griffin will score more than 16 points as well as play more than 19 minutes. Remember the Clippers lead the league in scoring but are #14 in points allowed.  Go ‘OVER’ tonight as a 4 ½* BEST BET. 

Analysis of  5* Portland and Houston 'OVER' Sunday:

7-0! The ‘OVER’ is 7-0 the last seven meetings between Portland and Houston.  These two teams were two of the top four scoring clubs in the league with the Rockets at 107.7 and Blazers at 106.7. Plus they occupy two of the top three spots in three-point field goals made each averaging over nine per game.  Remarkably the winning team in the last seven meetings has scored a minimum of 111 points.  The pace was alarming with the last three meetings producing 185, 183, and 180 shot attempts including 54, 58, and 47 from beyond the arc.  Plus a few of those games occurred with some significant injuries.  Now both squads are at full strength.  Both teams clicking recently too averaging over 108 points per game in their last five.  Houston is 14-4 ‘OVER’ in their last 18 games.  Portland ‘OVER’ in 10 of 17 recently. The Blazers have won five straight and that’s significant.  Portland is 9-1 ‘OVER’ on the road this year after four or more consecutive wins.  Houston lost their season-finale at New Orleans 105-100. The Rockets are an incredible 17-2 ‘OVER’ off a road defeat this year.  The Blazers are #22 in the league in points allowed while the Rockets are #23. This should be a track meet. Providing both teams shoot 44 percent or better we should have an easy ‘OVER’. I’m hoping the officiating is called tight as was the case in many of the games yesterday with the exception of Zach Randolph.  He was completely hosed by the officials for whatever reason.  Randolph was mugged countless times near the hoop with nothing called.  Granted he does initiate contact. But the ticky-tacky fouls called against him were remarkable.   If that kind of officiating persists, it could be a clean sweep for the Thunder.

  

20-14 all BEST BETS rated 5* or 4 1/2* (3-1-1 Big Dance)

All Majors 70-61 rated 4* or higher in regular season Hoops

32-17-3 all 5*'s and 4 1/2*'s dating back to Football season/ 95-71-5 all Majors

Premium Service Picks since November 24th-April 7th:

NFL: 35-17-2

NCAA Football: 29-19

NCAA Basketball: 134-124

NBA Basketball: 31-31-3

Total:  230-191-10 since 11/24.   214-180 the last 394 since Turkey Day  

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95-71-5 Majors (4* or better)/32-17-3 Best Bets (5* or 4 1/2*)

Helluva way to put the wraps on Football!

NFL 5*'s this year are 10-4

Animal now 26-16-2 last 44 Football Majors rated 4* or higher since November 23rd going 11-3-1 in BEST BETS last 15

December to Remember in the NFL for 'The Animal'

25-10 overall NFL since December 1st

11-4 NFL Majors

31-16 NFL since 11/24 going 6-2 in Best Bets (5* and 4 1/2*) and 15-7 in Majors

Analysis of 5* Blowout of the Year Seattle 23-0 vs. NY Giants:

I wonder if the Giants wouldn’t have made more of an effort to keep Osi Umenyiora had they known Jason Pierre-Paul would have been such a bust this year.  A key for the Giants for years was the fact they could rush four guys and get a terrific pass rush. But Umeyiora is now with the Falcons and Pierre-Paul had just two sacks this year before getting hurt for the season after producing 16 1/2-sacks two years ago.  One thing we know: Russell Wilson will frustrate the G-Men all day with his scrambling, running, passing, etc.  The Giants are #31 in sacks with just 25 on the season.  Only Jacksonville has fewer.  Plus at 5-8 the G-Men have packed it in with last week’s 23-point loss at San Diego.  The last two weeks they’ve allowed 144 and 139 yards rushing.  Marshawn Lynch should have a field day.  Seattle is off a loss (by two points) at San Francisco and I love taking Coach Carroll off a defeat.  Seattle, with a win, can clinch the NFC West and a first-round bye.  The Giants have become old very quick and are 27th in the league in rushing.  Eli just throws it up for grabs now w/ a 16-20 ratio of touchdowns to picks.  Plus he’s become an easy target taking 33 sacks so far.  Who would believe when this year started Eli would have a QB rating of 74.2?  Two years ago it was 92.9.  Prior to last week’s defeat, Seattle had won three consecutive games by margins of 27 (Saints), 21 (Vikings), and 23 (Falcons). This should be a blowout. Wilson has a 23-7 ratio with a QB rating of 106.5 and is #3 in the league in rushing among quarterbacks.  Seattle won here two years ago by 11 points with a commanding 145-69 edge on the ground. The Hawks are 9-4 SU and ATS following their last 13 straight-up defeats.  Finally the clincher!  Coach Carroll is 10-0 ATS as a favorite of 3 ½-9 ½ points at Seattle.  The average score in those 10 games was 34.6-11.3.  The G-men can’t run and the Seahawks are #1 in the league against the pass amassing 36 sacks and 17 picks along the way.  Watch Seattle go to 17-6 ATS in their last 23.  The Giants only had possession for 23:04 at San Diego last week.  Seattle has covered their last four as a road-favorite of more than six points playing out of division and against losing teams.  Granted the line is a little high but the Giants are eliminated and the Hawks are in a good spot coming off a defeat.  Plus you know they want to get a taste of the stadium they hope to return to in about 7 weeks.  I’m actually hoping for bad weather because Seattle has such a huge edge on the ground. Call this our 5* Blowout of the Year for marketing purposes but play same as all 5*'s.

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For the record 10* Totals Club rated 10*:

27-19 this year   

14-8 this year NFL

32-15 last 47 NFL

22-17 last 39

58-31 the last 89 rated 10*

 

10* Totals Club now 27-19 this year w/ 10*'s 

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2013 NFL Preseason Sensational!

NFLX Service plays in RED finish an incredible 18-3 ATS

10* Totals Club hits with 10* Saints 'OVER'

Maingate Group 15* Saints.  9-3 NFLX 25*/15* plays 

Wildcat picks up right where he left off!

10* Eagles & Jags 'OVER' (now 18-5-1 NFL 10*'s)

Plus Kelso's opening NFL 100* on Eagles

Sweet!  Texas 5* and ATS 12* Dallas covers!

North Coast finishes 9-3 NFLX

NFLX history:

3-2 Best Bets (5* or 4 1/2*) in 2012 but 9-10 in Majors (16-19-1 overall)

22-11 overall for +38 1/2 *STARS in 2011 highlighted by only 5* Denver/Seattle 'OVER' 36 1/2 in week #3

12-5-1 all Majors rated 4* or higher in 2010 including only 5* Green Bay/Indy 'OVER' 44 1/2 (59-24 Final) in week #3

13-5 all Majors rated 4* or higher in 2009 including only 5* Pittsburgh -6 in 17-0 Shutout in week #3 

3-1 Best Bets in 2011 and 10-6 in Majors

63-43 Preseason Majors since 2008

   

All FOOTBALL STREAKS:

2012 (Mediocrity on Premium service):

NFL Best Bets 15-13 in 2012 with Majors after 58-38 (48-32 regular season/10-6 NFLX) in 2011

NCAA Best Bets (5* and 4 1/2) 15-14-2 in 2012 with Majors (4* or higher) 46-42-6

28-20-1 NFL Best Bet 5* or 4 1/2*'s in 2012 and 2011.

176-134 NFL Majors since start of 2010 season

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Monday Night Football Magical last 3 years:

42-22-3 last 3 years on MNF

The NEW BetOnline

2012 the year of the Modified Consensus in FOOTBALL!

Service plays in RED an unbelievable 237-171-6 ATS the last 82 days or 66 games over .500.  Individual service breakdown below

10* Totals Club: 31-12 last 43 rated 10*.  18-7 NFL plays rated 10*. 3-1 in bowl 10*'s. 

Joe D: 20-7 all Footall 25* plays and now 49-20 w/ all Football rated 20* or higher w/ 20* Green Bay! and 25* Oregon.  6-0 all Football rated 35* or higher

Gameday: 14-4-1 4* or higher all football w/ 5* Okla State on 1/1 and Green Bay on 1/5.

Pure Lock: 14-3 NCAA w/ Northwestern 1/1.

Underdog: 10-5-1 NCAA/10-4 NFL

Maingate Group: 21-15 all Football 25* after missing Kent by 1/2-point Sunday night.

Kelso: 13-4 NCAA 100* or higher/ 8-1 NCAA 200*

Wildcat: 23-7-2 last 32 rated 10*. 17-5-1 NFL 10*'s on the year

Animal FINAL Hoop Records:

9-2 w/ all NCAA 5*'s/0-1 NBA

74-56-2 Majors last 65 days

86-62-2 last 150 Hoop Majors

Maingate nails 25* on 'UNDER' to finish NBA playoffs

Kudos to Maingate Group w/ 25*  'OVER' in NCAA title game Monday and Wichita State Monday.  17-5-1 NCAA 25*'s

10* Totals Club nails 10* on Syracuse 'UNDER' in Final Four)

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NFL: 76-54

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Analysis of 4 1/2* Baltimore in Super Bowl 47:

I should preface this analysis by stating I played the Ravens +5 ½ and a six-point teaser of the Ravens +11 ½ and ‘OVER’ 43 during the late stages of the 4th quarter of the New England/Baltimore game offshore when Heritage and 5dimes both jumped the gun a little.  So I got very good value with my ‘side’, teaser ‘side’, and not so much with my ‘teaser total’ considering I teased it from 49 to 43 rather than the possibility of 41 ½ later (but the side wouldn’t have been +11 ½). 
Essentially I believe this Baltimore Raven squad is indeed a team of destiny.  Three factors come to mind:  Owner Art Modell died at the age of 87 just days before opening day in September.  On November 25th Ray Rice ran 30 yards on a late 4th quarter 4th down and 29 at San Diego to set up the tying field goal and eventually lead to an overtime win over the Chargers.  Then of course the Jacoby Jones catch getting behind the Denver secondary in the final minute to set up overtime at Denver and allow the Ravens to advance to the 2nd round of the playoffs.  Maybe it’s a cliché, but you just don’t see those typesou of plays occur too often.
I like going w/ hot teams in the Super Bowl and nobody is hotter than Joe Flacco with an 8-0 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions in the playoffs. While Flacco has certainly won his share of playoff games in the past, he has been nothing but brilliant in the playoffs getting rid of the ball quicker and making his completions count.  While he doesn’t throw for a high percentage, he certainly is productive and throws one of the best deep passes in the game today.  The fact the Ravens won on the road at Denver against Peyton and New England against Brady playing almost nine quarters of football is nothing short of remarkable.  Ray Lewis is also playing out of his mind right now and there’s no question that Flacco is playing his best football of his career while the Ravens, especially on defense, are the healthiest they have been all season. Some will point toward the regular-season blowout defeat to Baltimore, the loss at Washington with a similar QB in RGIII compared to Kaepernick, and the regular-season home defeat to Denver as red flags. But I can assure you this is a much different stop unit now.  Baltimore was missing key people in all of those losses – (L. Webb (out for the year but this was their first game without him), R. Lewis and the first game back for Suggs) against Houston. They were without Ellerbe, Lewis, Suggs, J. Smith and C. Brown at Washington and without B. Pollard, Ellerbe, Lewis and OG Marshal Yanda against Denver.
I really can’t find a weakness with the Ravens and I firmly believed this game would be a virtual pick-em.  To me, San Francisco was rather ordinary on the road this season and extremely lucky to be here wining the turnover battle at Atlanta two weeks ago. My contention is that if Matt Ryan doesn’t fumble the snap immediately on the drive after the David Akers field goal that hit the top of the upright, this analysis would include the Falcons and not the 49ers.  Atlanta had a golden opportunity to go up 10 points and send the 49ers packing and nobody will convince me the 49ers didn’t get countless breaks in that game.  There was obvious holding on Roddy White on the 4th down play for Atlanta late but the umpire had his back turned on the play.  Plus I really think the late shoulder injury was bothering Ryan and the Falcons should have more patient in preparation of that 4th down snap.  I saw the 49ers struggle not once but twice against St. Louis and they looked awful at Seattle, albeit the week after the huge win in Foxboro and then a flight across the country. Plus let’s not forget the Pats in that defeat to the 49ers accumulated 520 yards and 34 points despite losing turnovers 4-2.  The 49ers also looked bad at Minnesota early in the season.  A season ago I felt the 49ers were perhaps the best team in football and were a fumble or two away from beating the Giants in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl.  The defense a season ago was more dominating for whatever reason.  This year’s defense allowed 31 points in three of their last four and 24 points against Atlanta in the first half alone two Sundays ago before the Falcons imploded with turnovers in the 2nd half.  I suspect the Justin Smith nagging injury is a huge intangible for this defense because their sack numbers dropped considerably down the stretch. I’m just not impressed with San Francisco on the road.
I really like the way Baltimore’s defense looked in the playoffs.  Limiting Denver at Mile High to 398 yards in virtually five quarters of football was sensational and then holding Brady and the Patriots scoreless in the entire 2nd half at Foxboro was something I could never anticipate by any stop unit in this league considering the magnitude of the game.  Sure you can blame the wind, the cold, blah, blah, blah, or say that Brady was just off. But I’m sure the Baltimore pressure and pass coverage had just as much to do with Brady being unable to produce at home.  That’s a phrase you haven’t been able to say too often over the years for #12 in Foxboro.  Let’s give some credit to Ray Lewis and company, who as mentioned, is now healthy. 
I’ll take Anquan Boldin and Ray Rice anytime on my team. Boldin is a guy that has the hands of Tony Gonzales and one of the best route runners in the league.  Plus he just makes the tough catches in traffic.  Rice is just impossible to tackle and is capable of breaking a run anytime.  He’s so low to the ground and is excellent at catching screen passes and turn nothing into something.  Rice caught 61 passes this year or just three off the team lead (Boldin).  I love the speed element too with Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones. These guys can certainly stretch the field and keep the corners deep as well as occupy the safeties making tight end Pitta and RB Rice extremely dangerous.  Don’t underestimate Bernard Pierce either out of the backfield.  He had 53 carries for 381 yards in his last five games and is becoming yet another real weapon for this team.  He had three games averaging 8.8, 7.9, and 5.8 yards in his last five (more on him in the prop section).
It’s easy to see the talent level and potential of Colin Kaepernick.  The 49ers officially averaged five more points per game with him over the departed Alex Smith.  But let’s not forget that Kaepernick isn’t the most experienced guy around and his best game as a pro came against an aging Green Bay defense when guys like Clay Matthews and Darren Woodson were recently returning from injury.  Plus it’s quite obvious the Green Bay defense is severely needing a complete overhaul and they made a blunder (Dom Capers strikes again) by playing man-to-man rather than zone and when the 49er receivers went deep Kaepernick has running lanes galore.  Sure he certainly beat Atlanta with his arm and not his legs but he was assisted by Falcon turnover and an injury to John Abraham made the Falcon pass rush virtually non-existent.  I don’t think it will be like that in New Orleans with dominating defensive players like Kruger and Suggs blitzing along with nose tackle Cody and defensive end Ngata clogging the middle.  Needless to say I love the Baltimore safeties in Pollard and Reed.  Any stop unit that certainly frustrated Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks on their home field can limit Colin Kaepernick playing in his 10th lifetime game.  I’ll try it and especially as an UNDERDOG. 
I also give the kicking edge to Baltimore with Tucker extremely accurate and better with long range field goals over the erratic David Akers.  
Bottom line: As mentioned above, I can’t find a weakness in the Ravens.  Flacco is playing out of his mind and the defense played lights out against Denver and New England.  I think the Ravens have a great shot at winning this game outright and love grabbing more than a field goal.

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